Movies · resolved market
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe236f87291a17903acf3fa6a498b64fb35103549db74d8ad50c9f723921424c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf49d…7e5bbacked No | 23c | 19,131$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,458.13 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.9wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -60%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x643f…e306backed Yes | 72c | 16,107$11,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,502.21 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -37%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed Yes | 79c | 13,889$10,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,958.7 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed No | 27c | 10,297$2,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,747.05 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…db5ebacked No | 21c | 2,547$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.11 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Yes | 71c | 2,270$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.53 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 28c | 2,112$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.89 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked No | 19c | 1,904$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed Yes | 35c | 1,216$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.07 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 12c | 643$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 72c | 484.78$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.03 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…eb26backed Yes | 54c | 461.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 12c | 460$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 19c | 375$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed No | 24c | 272.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 19c | 269.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 259.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ade…c477backed No | 13c | 247.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 14c | 209.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 72c | 202$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 15c | 166.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 20c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked No | 9c | 144.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 21c | 143.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 12c | 136$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.68 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked No | 20c | 129.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed Yes | 59c | 114$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 76c | 59.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fb…3fadbacked No | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 68c | 42.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…9462backed No | 30c | 33.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 69c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "Prometheus" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Addams Family 2" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Addams Family" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.