Movies · resolved market
Will "The Addams Family 2" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f2ced0b732eb10c85d8358739d863c08cfa55112fbbd2075e7c661e4dc70914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 1,009$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 18c | 857$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…7e5bbacked Yes | 60c | 850.16$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.81 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.9wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -60%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfaed…aa93backed No | 52c | 799.19$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 63c | 602.96$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.17 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed Yes | 13c | 532$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 38c | 515$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.12 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fb…94e2backed No | 58c | 505.24$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 39c | 438.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.44 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 13c | 257$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed Yes | 13c | 222$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed No | 54c | 113.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 45c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 74c | 99.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked Yes | 14c | 99.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 15c | 96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 31c | 91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…175bbacked Yes | 30c | 86.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6f…f19dbacked No | 47c | 83$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 74c | 49.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 61c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 62c | 20.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Addams Family 2" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Yes won
- Will "Prometheus" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Addams Family" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.