TailMyPicks
Market

Movies · resolved market

Will "The Addams Family" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,749
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,749 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75d4…4027backed Yes23c10,358$2,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,432.864665.2%30 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf49d…7e5bbacked Yes21c8,166$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,685.232123.8%5 W · 16 L-6.9wins-0.33per pick57cpaid-60%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xbb04…ec13backed No77c3,386$2,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$773.812536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb80f…db5ebacked Yes16c1,928$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.672365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+108.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes44c1,694$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.769456.4%53 W · 41 L+12.1wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+4.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes13c1,289$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.582245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No65c638.95$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.9316741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No77c623.23$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.947135.2%25 W · 46 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No32c574.3$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.055621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes22c544$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.924634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No75c495$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9223751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed No79c377$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.171580%12 W · 3 L+4.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+89.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Yes21c377$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.17110%0 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes22c351.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.442119.5%20 W · 191 L-0.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes8c350$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes19c316$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.042142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904314%6 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes37c296.79$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.531118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-73.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd77e…83a4backed Yes23c278$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.941353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed No77c278$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.94933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45ef…143bbacked Yes9c264.2$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.324955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes17c212.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.861729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No52c196$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7367232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x223d…8ef3backed No48c186.67$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.672268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2935…eb26backed No60c168.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.04366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes26c122$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.111,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+99%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409226.1%24 W · 68 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No75c99.83$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.833046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes25c84.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.413148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No70c82.38$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.566152.5%32 W · 29 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c3c…4169backed Yes26c76.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.79922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-70.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes21c76.2$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165311.3%6 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes19c75.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3513333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No54c71.75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9720841.8%87 W · 121 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No61c69.07$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.9534651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3671…5088backed Yes37c68.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.27520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-57.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x225a…ea07backed No41c61.06$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.313100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+102.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x49f7…f566backed No78c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.35572.7%40 W · 15 L+10.8wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+47.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes43c55.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1683…6906backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.975822.4%13 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No78c41.07$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.237969.6%55 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes42c34.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4448414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaef0…491cbacked No60c32.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.08742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No76c26.49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.496947.8%33 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x254c…7678backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.753360.6%20 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick69cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed No68c19.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f7dcbacked No77c14.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.