Movies · resolved market
Will "The Addams Family" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfbdb5471d744806886186319714c8331309deef506c4aef1d49cd0f80826140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,749
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,749 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 23c | 10,358$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.86 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf49d…7e5bbacked Yes | 21c | 8,166$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.23 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -6.9wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -60%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…ec13backed No | 77c | 3,386$2,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.81 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80f…db5ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,928$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66cb…3dd2backed Yes | 44c | 1,694$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.76 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +12.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 13c | 1,289$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 638.95$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.93 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 77c | 623.23$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.94 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 32c | 574.3$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.05 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 22c | 544$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 75c | 495$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed No | 79c | 377$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 21c | 377$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 22c | 351.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 8c | 350$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed Yes | 19c | 316$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed Yes | 37c | 296.79$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.53 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd77e…83a4backed Yes | 23c | 278$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 77c | 278$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ef…143bbacked Yes | 9c | 264.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 17c | 212.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 196$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.73 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed No | 48c | 186.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.67 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2935…eb26backed No | 60c | 168.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 122$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…a1c9backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +99%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 75c | 99.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes | 25c | 84.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 70c | 82.38$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3c…4169backed Yes | 26c | 76.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 21c | 76.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 75.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 54c | 71.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 61c | 69.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3671…5088backed Yes | 37c | 68.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x225a…ea07backed No | 41c | 61.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…f566backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +10.8wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…3e2cbacked Yes | 43c | 55.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 41.07$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 34.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked No | 60c | 32.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed No | 68c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f7dcbacked No | 77c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Addams Family" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?this page
- Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?Yes won
- Will "Prometheus" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "The Addams Family 2" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
- Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.