Movies · resolved market
Will "War Machine" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2dbbaa1ef350c19260086e9fbf595bf4aa62acb032f19c440e37ba77e5f06bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 71c | 1,768$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.72 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af4…f9e0backed No | 17c | 1,721$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.09 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 29c | 1,397$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.13 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked No | 29c | 1,368$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 1,268$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.93 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe539…5345backed No | 23c | 785$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed Yes | 71c | 734$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.86 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 23c | 729$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb1…5c16backed Yes | 60c | 725.32$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.29 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +8.4wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 77c | 722$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked No | 44c | 685$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 71c | 634$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 29c | 634$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.86 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked Yes | 77c | 628$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 36c | 623.39$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.44 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01e9…5250backed No | 23c | 614.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.02 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 71c | 537$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.73 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 29c | 505$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.45 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 71c | 505$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…8211backed Yes | 71c | 438$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee4b…be76backed No | 3c | 362$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 22c | 357.14$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked No | 29c | 347$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked No | 29c | 345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ab…edc1backed No | 29c | 339$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 75c | 322.21$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…034fbacked No | 22c | 319.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed Yes | 71c | 297$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 59c | 213.6$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.96 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed No | 29c | 195$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…589ebacked Yes | 71c | 195$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 14c | 189$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…a964backed No | 23c | 165$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed No | 63c | 158.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf244…beddbacked Yes | 45c | 141.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 8c | 135.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 15c | 128$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 36c | 127.62$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 77c | 118$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…cd03backed Yes | 44c | 116.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed No | 35c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked No | 17c | 105$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…6663backed No | 24c | 83.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 15c | 69.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…a065backed Yes | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed No | 19c | 65.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…152dbacked Yes | 33c | 48.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 54c | 24.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.