Stocks · resolved market
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 20)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86d58504d0f9a4adfd787dcf40ef85c2087402fa2b74b4362f93401b360a23e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 18c | 1,048$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 10c | 846.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 6c | 481.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1774…67b8backed Yes | 29c | 395.73$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…58cebacked No | 71c | 395.73$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…6279backed Yes | 12c | 394$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b5…b505backed Yes | 19c | 329.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…329bbacked No | 79c | 315.69$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c8…a016backed Yes | 21c | 315.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x282e…3eaabacked Yes | 12c | 307$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…572bbacked Yes | 19c | 289.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…78c4backed Yes | 20c | 264.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45e…6e29backed No | 80c | 233.27$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b0…c637backed Yes | 20c | 233.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…03fabacked No | 80c | 213.09$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…3887backed Yes | 21c | 213.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8930…d367backed Yes | 20c | 200.6$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350c…8955backed No | 80c | 200.6$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a2…bb2cbacked Yes | 21c | 198.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06bd…362dbacked No | 74c | 180.03$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db7…4288backed Yes | 26c | 180.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f49…085bbacked Yes | 21c | 179.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…7b23backed No | 80c | 179.49$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 12c | 176$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 74c | 173.28$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…1e0fbacked No | 80c | 144.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab9…710dbacked Yes | 20c | 144.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe67d…20f3backed Yes | 30c | 143.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…92e0backed No | 71c | 143.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +244.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…211abacked Yes | 21c | 137.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550f…881abacked No | 79c | 137.16$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 110.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 77c | 92.75$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 31c | 55.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 70c | 43.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 75c | 36.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c288backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 47c | 29.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…91c9backed No | 60c | 29.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07a…9154backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…70a9backed No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…74debacked No | 74c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 71c | 15.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.