World Politics · resolved market
Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x827f934c395476c3c0bb080640ea34c6f5fb69f0567d2d96c1547fb16226c7db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 4c | 2,227$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 9c | 1,909$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.37 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 15c | 1,209$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 10c | 577$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 10c | 528$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed Yes | 19c | 416.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 10c | 402.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 4c | 368.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721b…42e7backed Yes | 27c | 259.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 15c | 244.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 11c | 242.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 74c | 241.31$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c7…3726backed Yes | 13c | 227.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 16c | 199.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 171.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927e…e071backed Yes | 12c | 168.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 151.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…a678backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 13c | 135.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…16a3backed Yes | 13c | 122.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 13c | 118.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 102.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 220 | 29.5%65 W · 155 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…e3febacked Yes | 14c | 99.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 13c | 79.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked Yes | 14c | 78.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 18c | 76.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7314…cf76backed Yes | 20c | 76.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…37a1backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84d…f5ffbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 80c | 46.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 41 | 75.6%31 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c5…3071backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 75c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?this page
- Will TISZA win 46-50% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will TISZA win <42% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.