World Politics · resolved market
Will TISZA win 46-50% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe513384e1b9a4dcd3b2e260b0909bfe129fde31a26171982ae3e47cefc10c8c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed Yes | 1c | 4,107$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 23c | 1,542$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.41 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 29c | 1,024$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.21 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f31…b781backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 10c | 852.72$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 2c | 762.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7e…a7b0backed No | 72c | 696.43$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 633.16$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.94 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…de0cbacked Yes | 33c | 602.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 586.57$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.32 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Yes | 26c | 534.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 61c | 437.07$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.36 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 29c | 424.57$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 29c | 407.31$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 399.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 16c | 347.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…9644backed Yes | 29c | 313.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 23c | 299.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721b…42e7backed Yes | 32c | 297.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97d…732bbacked Yes | 23c | 250.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…c220backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 192.07$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 29c | 168$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 71c | 168$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258a…52a2backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcecd…c518backed Yes | 24c | 134$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 73c | 127.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 28c | 99.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 65c | 78.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…25b8backed No | 69c | 71.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…bc0dbacked No | 67c | 64.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 74c | 55.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1b…6d80backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…9332backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe24…10fbbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 71c | 49.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes | 33c | 49.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…99f9backed No | 69c | 47.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 23c | 46.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaef7…0e53backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 41.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 73c | 33.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…6ddabacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 68c | 24.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 63c | 19.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 66c | 15.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed No | 74c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…52d1backed No | 73c | 14.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TISZA win 46-50% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?this page
- Will TISZA win 42-46% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?Yes won
- Will TISZA win 54%+ of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
- Will TISZA win <42% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.