Weather · resolved market
Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc616ebc69918eaef1fbe7fd89959c9e5bdc7eda7c66ae8bd728aa1736bec9c52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 11c | 962$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed No | 13c | 866$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed No | 12c | 676$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 71c | 556.62$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.16 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 9c | 514$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c8…7861backed No | 16c | 421$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 16c | 396$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 7c | 269$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed Yes | 60c | 251.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 247$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…9aa6backed Yes | 61c | 162.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 119.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…b74bbacked No | 24c | 105.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 45c | 62.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb706…b12bbacked Yes | 71c | 59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d90…37c2backed Yes | 72c | 58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b2…bb3bbacked Yes | 71c | 54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…2f77backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…b443backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb932…5ab6backed Yes | 72c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…97cbbacked No | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa214…2d44backed Yes | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 77c | 40.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297d…4947backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa454…daafbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9326…dd5abacked Yes | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…eab7backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…4b56backed Yes | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6e…a3c4backed Yes | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…a0c8backed Yes | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c0…43d5backed Yes | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd7…d41bbacked Yes | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5efa…8e48backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NYC have less than 3 inches of precipitation in January?this page
- Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will NYC have between 6 and 7 inches of precipitation in January?No won
- Will NYC have more than 7 inches of precipitation in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.