Movies · resolved market
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39f293168003ec7e03449114062e279a86ed8f869d9f31ef367dd3a3c2a70c59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 16c | 656$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 76c | 515$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked No | 24c | 433$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 24c | 399$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.76 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 16c | 375$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed No | 16c | 286$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 76c | 216$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed No | 16c | 197$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 76c | 101$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 71c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 74c | 23.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 75c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +97.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 76c | 17.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Documentary at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?this page
- Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
- Will Endless Cookie win Best Documentary at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
- Will My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 - Last Air in Moscow win Best Documentary at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
- Will The Tale of Silyan win Best Documentary at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.