IPO · resolved market
Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $700M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39186ce0252fceada10efd1b9fa745d620d94b4f913f87d869d86a2c5c08b086
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd7e…275ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,198$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +123%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…8adebacked Yes | 19c | 976$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +101%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed Yes | 18c | 820$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 19c | 814$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 57c | 425.03$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.6 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed Yes | 18c | 356$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 22cpaid | +377.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 18c | 351$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 16c | 107.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…312fbacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…fcaebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfe…b139backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365c…c731backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed No | 79c | 85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb8…217abacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…898abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 78c | 46.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $700M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $450M and $500M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $500M and $550M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $550M and $600M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $600M and $650M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $650M and $700M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be less than $450M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.