IPO · resolved market
Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $600M and $650M at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x564dde7352a528d40c2a1db8b25963c38ca9848f93f316f13f583878f34eae27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 16c | 1,425$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23e…1461backed Yes | 16c | 1,200$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 16c | 995$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7039…2d8abacked Yes | 16c | 709$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked Yes | 16c | 492$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x910a…91a9backed Yes | 17c | 395$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 17c | 360$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed Yes | 17c | 295$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…98e8backed Yes | 16c | 252$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 19c | 216.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 16c | 139.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 116 | 34.5%40 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f93…d39cbacked Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $600M and $650M at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $450M and $500M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $500M and $550M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $550M and $600M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $650M and $700M at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $700M at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be less than $450M at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.