AI · resolved market
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1543b3593c4b5ebf6febe85ddfc0f9ada23e8ce5b515daa15e59c8f2a2d1808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked No | 59c | 655$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.55 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked No | 56c | 627$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.88 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed Yes | 41c | 446$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 44c | 438$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.72 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d4…e1efbacked Yes | 44c | 428$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…ed23backed Yes | 37c | 251.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 56c | 239$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.16 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed Yes | 41c | 144$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 51c | 138.46$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.43 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 59c | 134.87$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 58c | 122.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.78 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 56c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 52c | 64.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…a763backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 45c | 55.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 41c | 46.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf88e…3c9ebacked No | 61c | 31.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6700…36f9backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 56c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 57c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?this page
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.