Movies · resolved market
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83a29a27663183f7ce5b28cdc220665ca022cdc5f99d3c0ee589c13ec4fe7ad4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,888 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 6c | 10,180$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.54 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…1bbfbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 7c | 7,503$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 7c | 7,452$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 6,750$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.08 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…a1a3backed No | 7c | 6,677$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…1ad1backed No | 8c | 3,273$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 9c | 2,874$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.88 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 9c | 2,336$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +50%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed No | 7c | 2,099$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.05 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…1377backed No | 11c | 1,869$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 7c | 1,598$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.74 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 1,307$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 1,245$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 1c | 1,174$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…3d19backed No | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 5c | 940$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 9c | 898$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 162 | 37.7%61 W · 101 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 847.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…e387backed No | 6c | 810.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed No | 11c | 786$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 8c | 769$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 11c | 765$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 7c | 758.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 735.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 7c | 619.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 7c | 601.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 9c | 578.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 8c | 566$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 11c | 561$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.71 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 8c | 558.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7b…9cd5backed No | 6c | 524.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa5…ed0bbacked No | 6c | 429$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bc…8ce0backed No | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 13c | 366.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…1e8dbacked No | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 7c | 349$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66d…0859backed No | 11c | 335.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…60f0backed No | 5c | 322.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 9c | 256.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ff…bc38backed No | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212f…23e3backed No | 8c | 240$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 5c | 238.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 10c | 233$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd103…dc55backed No | 7c | 206.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…7922backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a29…89c1backed No | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad5…7492backed No | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba7…41d5backed No | 6c | 180$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6810…308fbacked No | 10c | 152.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 8c | 150.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked No | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59e…8937backed No | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked No | 9c | 136$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed No | 8c | 127.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27fc…ddbcbacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…d3e0backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked No | 9c | 125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b58…e80abacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 9c | 111.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Elio win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Little Amelie or the Character of Rain win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.