Movies · resolved market
Will Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x052b01190873693810efb0c05dd3fbca1b9cb6885b071b5912493a4e84c47cc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,701 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3aa0…0c4fbacked Yes | 2c | 14,401$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 1c | 13,940$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.63 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 9,615$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.81 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 5,981$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.59 | 98 | 3.1%3 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -89%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…7d88backed Yes | 3c | 3,913$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 1c | 3,333$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 1c | 2,629$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 2,117$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…6444backed Yes | 1c | 1,754$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…1127backed Yes | 1c | 1,699$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,479$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…f73abacked Yes | 1c | 1,445$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2280…4ef5backed Yes | 1c | 1,328$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,258$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b30…a315backed Yes | 1c | 1,252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04c5…1ad1backed Yes | 2c | 1,226$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698f…a216backed Yes | 2c | 1,178$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,173$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d02…95abbacked Yes | 1c | 1,072$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…1aa8backed Yes | 1c | 1,011$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2e…95e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,009$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a5…4cffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 980.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5c08backed Yes | 1c | 959.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…42b3backed Yes | 2c | 935$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9d…3033backed Yes | 2c | 932$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcab…c8febacked Yes | 2c | 921.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 907.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 111 | 4.5%5 W · 106 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…6587backed Yes | 2c | 875$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 837$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8d…0002backed Yes | 2c | 829.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 3c | 750$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…f639backed Yes | 2c | 747.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 716.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 614.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 457.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arco win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Elio win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Little Amelie or the Character of Rain win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.