TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,427
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,718

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,427 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38e5…95e7backed No73c748$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.7913040%52 W · 78 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes24c709.99$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.94918.4%9 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No73c656.8$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.1529926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes23c634$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.452147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No76c591$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.777136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54a7…ae55backed Yes32c545.11$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1732133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed No77c475$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.722347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6335…ca2bbacked No71c410.6$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.572236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-26.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5f55…580cbacked Yes25c401.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed Yes23c396$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.482147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed Yes23c382.71$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.027135.2%25 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x830b…f328backed Yes24c371$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed No77c346$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.623432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc450…a5b8backed Yes23c346$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.621643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No75c333.29$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9326641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes31c323.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+52.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x59d7…0217backed Yes23c311$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.841136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed No77c311$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.842045%9 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf12…0c80backed Yes24c275$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e1…a5cdbacked No77c266$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.451631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes29c260.44$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.784930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f07…2036backed Yes19c259.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.511827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes20c244.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.062412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72dd…8be4backed No77c215$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.662250%11 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5428528.8%82 W · 203 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5056…f991backed Yes23c193$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.581643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x322a…3274backed No77c193$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.582254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+43.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb29e…349bbacked Yes25c186$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x458b…888ebacked Yes25c180$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270e…2930backed Yes29c173.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No74c167.37$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0836538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.155523.6%13 W · 42 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+138.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7bc2…90fcbacked Yes26c135$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1ca…ffaebacked No76c133$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes22c131.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.971,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x32ec…8692backed Yes31c131.45$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.25per pick62cpaid-47.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeadd…79d9backed No76c128$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0192…ba59backed Yes44c124.55$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed No62c122.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-45.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b0…7952backed No76c121$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes16c117.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.061,21817.8%217 W · 1,001 L-124.0wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd80e…284dbacked No76c117$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1716…6d63backed No76c108$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No70c105$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.8534651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab11…f19bbacked Yes25c103$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10901.1%1 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5258…027abacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a52…5ab1backed Yes25c97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x857b…ad80backed Yes24c95$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x808d…24a7backed Yes27c92.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-44.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed No73c92$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.93616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27ba…9236backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac8c…415cbacked No77c90.01$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.713745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a06…a6b7backed No76c89$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29da…85dabacked Yes23c85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c1…98a7backed Yes26c84.78$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fd…c6b2backed No75c84$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0837…99cabacked Yes25c84$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9a…db38backed No76c78$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82f4…7375backed Yes25c76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e48…5b16backed Yes25c75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1985…e717backed No76c74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No77c74$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.093145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd866…5056backed Yes27c73.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2387…abe1backed No68c73.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.262330.4%7 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.767232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f97…a349backed Yes22c67.39$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fd…c639backed Yes24c66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc90…ba9bbacked Yes25c66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked No76c65.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.991827.8%5 W · 13 L-5.1wins-0.28per pick56cpaid-62.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc20f…5f5cbacked No75c65$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes23c63.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3548236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fcb…86f0backed Yes25c63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200c…fcefbacked Yes25c61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes27c58.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9814337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0845…c4edbacked No71c57.49$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.732832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc530…d43fbacked Yes25c57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dbc…8778backed No76c56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick76cpaid+32.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba28…befabacked No76c56$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb5…8210backed Yes25c56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec6…1cdfbacked No76c52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb39…0975backed Yes24c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06a0…0e4dbacked Yes24c52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbaa…c6dbbacked No76c52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xadab…037bbacked No75c51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.222030.5%67 W · 153 L-13.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b42…6554backed Yes27c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+47.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd604…6392backed Yes24c47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84e3…8be0backed Yes24c47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d3…af94backed Yes26c47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac2…c70abacked No75c46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes25c46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4748414%68 W · 416 L-39.3wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-43.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa009…431fbacked No75c46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No70c45.89$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.861844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca48…2dcfbacked Yes25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfccc…c56abacked No75c43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.97250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x994e…fb47backed No76c43$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes27c42.39$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.233336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3ad…6866backed No74c42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4705…9ba7backed Yes25c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.