Movies · resolved market
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0304d8c3dc399ea2e0c291bb41fd173fc552363383fe59eed67679bf108828af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 73c | 748$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.79 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1970…398dbacked Yes | 24c | 709.99$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.9 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 73c | 656.8$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.15 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 23c | 634$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 76c | 591$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.77 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 32c | 545.11$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 77c | 475$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 71c | 410.6$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…580cbacked Yes | 25c | 401.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 23c | 396$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 23c | 382.71$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.02 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…f328backed Yes | 24c | 371$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6558…e485backed No | 77c | 346$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 23c | 346$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 75c | 333.29$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 31c | 323.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed Yes | 23c | 311$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f404backed No | 77c | 311$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…0c80backed Yes | 24c | 275$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked No | 77c | 266$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 29c | 260.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…2036backed Yes | 19c | 259.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 20c | 244.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72dd…8be4backed No | 77c | 215$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed Yes | 23c | 193$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…3274backed No | 77c | 193$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb29e…349bbacked Yes | 25c | 186$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458b…888ebacked Yes | 25c | 180$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…2930backed Yes | 29c | 173.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 167.37$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc2…90fcbacked Yes | 26c | 135$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ca…ffaebacked No | 76c | 133$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 131.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…8692backed Yes | 31c | 131.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 62cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeadd…79d9backed No | 76c | 128$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…ba59backed Yes | 44c | 124.55$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed No | 62c | 122.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b0…7952backed No | 76c | 121$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 117.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd80e…284dbacked No | 76c | 117$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…6d63backed No | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 70c | 105$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab11…f19bbacked Yes | 25c | 103$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…027abacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a52…5ab1backed Yes | 25c | 97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x857b…ad80backed Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…24a7backed Yes | 27c | 92.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 73c | 92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ba…9236backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8c…415cbacked No | 77c | 90.01$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…a6b7backed No | 76c | 89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29da…85dabacked Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…98a7backed Yes | 26c | 84.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fd…c6b2backed No | 75c | 84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0837…99cabacked Yes | 25c | 84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9a…db38backed No | 76c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f4…7375backed Yes | 25c | 76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…5b16backed Yes | 25c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…e717backed No | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…5056backed Yes | 27c | 73.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 68c | 73.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…a349backed Yes | 22c | 67.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…c639backed Yes | 24c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc90…ba9bbacked Yes | 25c | 66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked No | 76c | 65.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 56cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc20f…5f5cbacked No | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 23c | 63.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…86f0backed Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200c…fcefbacked Yes | 25c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 58.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…c4edbacked No | 71c | 57.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc530…d43fbacked Yes | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…8778backed No | 76c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba28…befabacked No | 76c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb5…8210backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…1cdfbacked No | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…0975backed Yes | 24c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…0e4dbacked Yes | 24c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…c6dbbacked No | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadab…037bbacked No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…6554backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd604…6392backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…8be0backed Yes | 24c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d3…af94backed Yes | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac2…c70abacked No | 75c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…431fbacked No | 75c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 70c | 45.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca48…2dcfbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccc…c56abacked No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…fb47backed No | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 27c | 42.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4705…9ba7backed Yes | 25c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?this page
- Will Hamnet win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?Yes won
- Will Sentimental Value win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.