Movies · resolved market
Will Rich Russo - Super Bowl LIX - Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs win Best Director for Sports at the 78th DGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f5f908a82bdaf15c9539e3e81a32db5e1d90ab54bb358f34790a1b79c7834a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,709
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,709 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 78c | 1,256$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed Yes | 73c | 839$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.47 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed Yes | 70c | 642$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.4 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed No | 22c | 571$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2b…73a0backed No | 27c | 560$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 30c | 466$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 19c | 447$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 21c | 382$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 79c | 382$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 22c | 364$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.92 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed No | 22c | 321$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +144.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed No | 21c | 315$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…ed0cbacked Yes | 79c | 315$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed No | 21c | 281$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…7c01backed Yes | 79c | 281$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed No | 27c | 279$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.67 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…9134backed No | 21c | 279$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.41 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +4.6wins | +0.33per pick | 38cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 79c | 279$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 16c | 178.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.21 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 30c | 176$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed Yes | 79c | 140$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91af…95c8backed No | 21c | 140$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b0…ce9ebacked No | 24c | 51.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +313.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 76c | 49.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.