Middle East · resolved market
Will the US capture Khamenei before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x145fe73c4701a2b2565bfcc8df197dea8f68aeed4a16d95bea7ef14bea862b10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f38…4c9abacked Yes | 0c | 14,251$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 3,910$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.1 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f0…aaafbacked Yes | 16c | 2,497$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…b4f5backed Yes | 5c | 2,225$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 0c | 2,080$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 139 | 18.7%26 W · 113 L | -13.9wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…50b1backed Yes | 11c | 1,999$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…1b27backed Yes | 11c | 1,875$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32a…06fdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,506$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.63 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +6.2wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…c8ddbacked Yes | 8c | 1,266$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 3c | 1,167$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | +19.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,143$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 5c | 906.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…f799backed Yes | 11c | 698.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7c…d9b6backed Yes | 16c | 643.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 505.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 10c | 462.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5324…cc22backed Yes | 22c | 461.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…fbdebacked Yes | 11c | 440$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +253.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6592…1e99backed Yes | 11c | 416.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02dd…436bbacked Yes | 8c | 407.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa846…3ab8backed Yes | 12c | 406.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Yes | 13c | 400$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed Yes | 11c | 371$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…5292backed Yes | 15c | 330.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…ff7abacked Yes | 12c | 321.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 11c | 315$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…a5ecbacked Yes | 6c | 312$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 11c | 286$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…fb93backed Yes | 11c | 274.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…e1fbbacked Yes | 11c | 270.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 9c | 257.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f2…6478backed Yes | 14c | 242.07$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +166.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 7c | 235$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd60…93cbbacked Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 30cpaid | +292.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 211.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes | 11c | 209.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…61dbbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee39…a40abacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ad…c0dabacked Yes | 10c | 191.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…3d59backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…74e8backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +786.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6975…b13bbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x964a…a3ffbacked Yes | 8c | 180.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 8c | 169.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbd…d7a6backed Yes | 12c | 167.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 77c | 166.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…6797backed Yes | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 9c | 164.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 154.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ff…721cbacked Yes | 10c | 146.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +226.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…6433backed Yes | 11c | 139.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2278…1d55backed Yes | 11c | 136.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 131.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…26f8backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 12c | 113.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…8348backed Yes | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…b247backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…3727backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6354…ea33backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…1061backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…79afbacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.