Movies · resolved market
Will Noah Wyle win Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa19f1e55994bae7d949baa26cae81fef4bdc4a2863e0f48aa290b067e3502075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,614
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,614 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc450…a5b8backed No | 9c | 887$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 18c | 641$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed Yes | 79c | 623$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 608.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed No | 12c | 508$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.96 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 8c | 506$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 14c | 404$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.9 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f87…3929backed No | 21c | 396$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b92…7585backed No | 13c | 358$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 10c | 353$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…cd36backed No | 13c | 317$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 27c | 290.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.63 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 12c | 240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed No | 12c | 238$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 21c | 219$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 56c | 210$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.54 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…e28abacked No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 146.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 31c | 95.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 84.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 74c | 33.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noah Wyle win Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?this page
- Will Billy Crudup win Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Gary Oldman win Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
- Will Mark Ruffalo win Best Actor in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.