AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 5-6 times in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4fa45b2e364f8d8fa5cf739a3cec87749e6147ea2a55916ab2af3fd40053472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,198 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 32c | 436.32$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 8c | 329.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ef…2257backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…91d8backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe937…d46abacked No | 65c | 220.05$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.17 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…00ddbacked Yes | 5c | 202.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 32c | 115.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.32 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 61c | 108.72$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 23c | 101.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 35c | 85.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 56.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…1b44backed Yes | 25c | 46.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 34c | 37.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 50c | 30.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad42…c918backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13c1…7c2fbacked No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 46c | 22.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 5-6 times in March?this page
- Will Claude go down 0 times in March?No won
- Will Claude go down 1-2 times in March?No won
- Will Claude go down 11+ times in March?Yes won
- Will Claude go down 3-4 times in March?No won
- Will Claude go down 7-8 times in March?No won
- Will Claude go down 9-10 times in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.