Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x157f2aef23bfb36b5cd989fa23ac515197d16e77d676c7d04cff2b0c3da32545
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,836 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 0c | 5,972$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked No | 4c | 4,156$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.01 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 14c | 1,127$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.73 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 51c | 1,042$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 57c | 787.12$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.01 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 10c | 679.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 665.71$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.17 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 67c | 650.84$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 4c | 533.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 34c | 512.9$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.14 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 55c | 504.21$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.73 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 22c | 429.52$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 25c | 402.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 69c | 384.95$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 42c | 349.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 51c | 289.16$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.19 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 271.23$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 271.03$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 32c | 253.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.62 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 49c | 241.69$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.13 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 46c | 232.54$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 47c | 219.2$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 51c | 207$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 49c | 206.79$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 201.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 20c | 200.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…916abacked Yes | 57c | 197.18$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed Yes | 52c | 191.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.64 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9462…a807backed No | 57c | 173.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 9c | 168.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 21c | 160.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 79c | 133.61$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 8c | 131.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 48c | 125.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 32c | 124.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 123.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…d6c4backed Yes | 80c | 120.34$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 27c | 116.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 48c | 115.59$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…b247backed Yes | 80c | 114.03$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…12bdbacked No | 18c | 111.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 36c | 110.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 52c | 109.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 104.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b01…e204backed No | 12c | 100.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…8fbabacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 79c | 97.92$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed No | 54c | 93.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 45c | 85.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 84.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…c246backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 51c | 79.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.51 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa95b…711abacked Yes | 27c | 70.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…af28backed Yes | 62c | 69.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 54c | 69.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfb…f448backed Yes | 60c | 66.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 30c | 65.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 80c | 64.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 41c | 59.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 51c | 58.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 44c | 56.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf4…b52ebacked No | 38c | 54.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked No | 66c | 53.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 47c | 52.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed Yes | 68c | 50.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 56c | 49.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 63c | 49.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 46c | 47.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d4…0bdcbacked No | 55c | 45.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 56c | 44.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…71febacked Yes | 46c | 43.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…f44fbacked Yes | 57c | 40.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked No | 64c | 38.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687a…4e6bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…feb3backed No | 52c | 36.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 73c | 36.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7395…9c80backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 35.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 39c | 34.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 65c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 40c | 34.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f77…6631backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 63c | 31.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…a20abacked Yes | 66c | 31.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.