Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa97806f4d102b3eb95ba4d557a396c7fe8a48770e8c543eb608c2b905fa133c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,935 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 0c | 3,014$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…e984backed Yes | 10c | 2,910$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,869$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 19c | 1,230$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.36 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 29c | 970.34$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.01 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 18c | 666.84$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…2720backed Yes | 29c | 572.52$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.26 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 80c | 556.86$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 24c | 535.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…c00fbacked Yes | 25c | 532.82$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked Yes | 20c | 505.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 479.73$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 17c | 466.05$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 12c | 440$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 15c | 398.19$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.83 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 366$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 358.16$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 350.1$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.35 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 7c | 328.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 327.48$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…62b6backed Yes | 17c | 311.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 24c | 306$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…92f7backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 15c | 291.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 16c | 277.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 256.2$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…8e64backed No | 79c | 250$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5d…11d5backed Yes | 25c | 240.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Yes | 26c | 230.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9462…a807backed Yes | 24c | 230.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 223.74$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 18c | 217$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…06a1backed Yes | 26c | 209.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 19c | 207$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 201.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 191.75$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 22c | 186$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…fd6bbacked Yes | 17c | 179.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed No | 60c | 166.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 165.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 164.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 19c | 160.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6604…941cbacked Yes | 21c | 145.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9675…b63fbacked Yes | 17c | 141.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…3387backed Yes | 14c | 140.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 16c | 126.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…ff54backed No | 73c | 111.93$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 22c | 110.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…da74backed Yes | 24c | 105.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 20c | 100.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b97…5119backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…1938backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 25c | 99.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 69c | 99.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 68c | 93.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…af28backed Yes | 39c | 92.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 21c | 89.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de5…3d0fbacked Yes | 22c | 88.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 18c | 87.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 15c | 79.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 13c | 77.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 77.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 75.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa95b…711abacked Yes | 26c | 70.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 22c | 66.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 20c | 51.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 20c | 50.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 28c | 46.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 80c | 46.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 72c | 45.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 38.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed No | 80c | 22.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…10fabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.