Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfb900e5ef2038dffcbeebccf7446147aed730024fc38df6296aa2413e6ce9da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,040 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d4…0a1bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,861$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 6c | 4,000$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.65 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 7c | 3,537$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,460$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 1,196$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 7c | 999.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 10c | 657.05$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 8c | 461.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 8c | 425.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 18c | 324$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 306.98$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 294.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…bb70backed Yes | 4c | 280$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 16c | 278.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 26c | 269.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.4 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 12c | 262.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed No | 73c | 232$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 218.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 20c | 216.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 207$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.39 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 197.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 13c | 154.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9462…a807backed Yes | 33c | 151.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 14c | 143.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4722…36bbbacked No | 73c | 137.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed No | 74c | 135$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 28c | 133.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 22c | 109.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 16c | 106.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 32c | 101.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 22c | 101$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 16c | 100.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 24c | 100.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab1…c560backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…c3b4backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…cb31backed No | 78c | 99.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 97.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 17c | 92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 29c | 87.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 81.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed No | 80c | 79.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb02…73c2backed Yes | 26c | 76.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 27c | 75.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 70c | 71.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 30c | 67.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…71febacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…59a2backed Yes | 18c | 57.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…e000backed Yes | 22c | 56.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb3…51c8backed No | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 63c | 45.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed No | 80c | 38.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…0b94backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c25…3703backed No | 76c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 80c | 32.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ac…c00fbacked No | 77c | 29.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked No | 71c | 27.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafe8…da74backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 70c | 20.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7e…96d0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…675fbacked No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…a0e4backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.