Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x504dddc8bcc7cf74ea068888d6ec8f3a060401c9ff4b335f98596871dc138cf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,354 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 166 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,564$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 21c | 1,104$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.55 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,090$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 78c | 847.31$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 11c | 822.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 7c | 820.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 812$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.82 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 804.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 9c | 796.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 762.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…daa5backed Yes | 34c | 694.18$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 9c | 685.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 79c | 598.03$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 486.42$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 485.3$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 8c | 424.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 26c | 424.44$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 400$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 393.1$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 79c | 384.7$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 15c | 360.69$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…e2dbbacked Yes | 30c | 353.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 22c | 346.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 22c | 332.64$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 330$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 324.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e0…1affbacked Yes | 21c | 324.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 316.55$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.98 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 13c | 310.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 14c | 310.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 305.1$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 26c | 277.36$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 267.57$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 18c | 252.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 20c | 249.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 16c | 248.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 22c | 245.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…5fc7backed Yes | 25c | 244.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 230.46$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…4d8cbacked Yes | 31c | 223.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9550…923ebacked Yes | 9c | 210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 17c | 201.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 200.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…48a3backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 196.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…0432backed Yes | 16c | 196.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 195.86$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 13c | 188$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 20c | 187.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 33c | 187.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed No | 67c | 180.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.71 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…78afbacked No | 76c | 180.26$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 25c | 175.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…e78cbacked Yes | 26c | 174.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…e842backed Yes | 15c | 172.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 17c | 166.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 69c | 165.81$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 155$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 13c | 151.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…7aa6backed Yes | 14c | 151$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 26c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…ebc6backed Yes | 14c | 143.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 72c | 138.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.62 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 19c | 131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 18c | 130.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 129.14$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 14c | 128.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed Yes | 24c | 127.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 13c | 124.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 17c | 117.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2e…b010backed Yes | 27c | 116.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 115.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 114.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.34 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33be…9c0dbacked Yes | 17c | 113$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 109.44$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 28c | 107.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 24c | 104.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…78adbacked Yes | 30c | 100.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…8f0ebacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d1…ad50backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f6…c4fbbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…1938backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 97.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 20c | 96.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.