Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x709844a772e79dc4b09aea4fbb9f1c02804ca7d924647eebba33a88f540ff129
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,312 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 4c | 5,005$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.75 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,148$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…ad60backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 6c | 1,778$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.73 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 1,754$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 5c | 1,697$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 4c | 1,515$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,439$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,147$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 927.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d52…b9b3backed Yes | 5c | 603.88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc034…7d2fbacked Yes | 7c | 587.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 3c | 584.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 520.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 2c | 511.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 507.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 466.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 7c | 433$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 337.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 7c | 330$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 11c | 318.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 6c | 312.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 5c | 299.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 7c | 283.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 7c | 275.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 15c | 270$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 4c | 255.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 5c | 230.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 229.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…c2d0backed Yes | 5c | 227.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…6679backed Yes | 5c | 218.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484e…9ed0backed Yes | 5c | 205.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…5886backed Yes | 5c | 203.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 8c | 184.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 159$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d1…ad50backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…152cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed Yes | 21c | 81.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed Yes | 17c | 62.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…c472backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86cc…f46ebacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.