Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x221816bb43a9347212a89481c97e9d5ce3f85410009681a97b13cab9adc7d3e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,171 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5549…ad60backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…e842backed Yes | 4c | 1,226$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 78c | 861.79$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 24c | 852.56$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.75 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 13c | 763.68$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 20c | 705.68$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 13c | 691.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 595.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 513.86$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 21c | 507.18$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 25c | 487.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.62 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a80…cfdcbacked No | 79c | 450$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 15c | 389.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfe…de4dbacked Yes | 23c | 384.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 378.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 15c | 331$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 21c | 330$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.74 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 10c | 329.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 17c | 323$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 322$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 302.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…6430backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 299.87$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 17c | 298.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 285.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 43c | 279.84$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.66 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 267.46$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes | 18c | 260.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed No | 80c | 259$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 32c | 258.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.1 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 31c | 252.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.78 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 247.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 42c | 240$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…b571backed Yes | 16c | 239.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 20c | 230.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 229.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…bbc5backed Yes | 32c | 220.77$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 36c | 209$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 58c | 207.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…6679backed Yes | 7c | 200.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…42acbacked No | 78c | 199.99$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 27c | 199.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe200…5886backed Yes | 10c | 197.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 38c | 196.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 58c | 190.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.06 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…09cdbacked Yes | 40c | 186.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 19c | 177.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked Yes | 46c | 174.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 16c | 168.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 165$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 64c | 159.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 25c | 157.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 18c | 156.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 31c | 156$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 26c | 149.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 19c | 148.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 17c | 139.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4d…259bbacked Yes | 43c | 131$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 21c | 128.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b47…2906backed No | 80c | 127$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 125.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 41c | 124.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 17c | 122.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 21c | 120.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c6…90bfbacked Yes | 17c | 120.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 120.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked Yes | 19c | 119.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 114.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 29c | 114.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 45c | 110.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 66c | 106.47$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d1…ad50backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c0…152cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Yes | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed No | 63c | 99.94$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 10c | 99.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 39c | 99.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 20c | 99.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 98.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 57c | 95.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 30c | 90.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…63bcbacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +226.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 88.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.