Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf338e815961cbbd90502037ec8bc0aa885101a083cb196c0a122c949fde02624
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,308 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf63c…ff1cbacked No | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…2529backed No | 0c | 11,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…dec2backed No | 0c | 7,400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 5c | 2,168$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 55c | 1,098$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.77 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked No | 53c | 1,033$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…daa5backed Yes | 46c | 976.63$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 25c | 964.58$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.36 | 800 | 24.8%198 W · 602 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 795.52$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 6c | 769.47$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 57c | 700$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.64 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 38c | 466.95$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 46c | 451.92$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.01 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 46c | 440.43$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.47 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 78c | 432.25$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.83 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 48c | 431.95$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.77 | 1,829 | 42.6%780 W · 1,049 L | +51.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 6c | 431.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 980 | 13.9%136 W · 844 L | +34.6wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 420.08$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.84 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 57c | 404.09$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.22 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 43c | 403.55$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.55 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc09f…928bbacked No | 53c | 367.93$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 347$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.22 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 43c | 339.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.78 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5d…54e1backed Yes | 44c | 321.6$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.1 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 318$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…94babacked No | 18c | 300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 36c | 268.93$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.71 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 268.77$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 265.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…83afbacked Yes | 71c | 256.18$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.18 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 19c | 256$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.94 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed No | 60c | 253.19$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.37 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 60c | 240$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…3387backed Yes | 78c | 228.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 227.3$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.21 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 58c | 222.25$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 912 | 28.9%264 W · 648 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 70c | 212.85$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 70c | 212.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed No | 68c | 205.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 205.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.07 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 69c | 202.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.01 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 20c | 202.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 201.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 48c | 201$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…ad60backed No | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 64c | 197.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 1,279 | 53.9%690 W · 589 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 193.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 189.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked No | 79c | 187.45$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.37 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed Yes | 43c | 182.12$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 56c | 180.1$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 48c | 178.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.69 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 54c | 170$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 43c | 158.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…d073backed No | 74c | 157.83$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 156$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…4c94backed Yes | 46c | 155$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 154.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.39 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55cf…b347backed No | 52c | 153.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 27c | 151.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.76 | 473 | 33.2%157 W · 316 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x527e…384ebacked No | 74c | 151.64$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e8…7b89backed Yes | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 48c | 145.78$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.81 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 63c | 141.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 56c | 137.28$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.45 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…d2b5backed Yes | 36c | 135$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671c…b8f2backed Yes | 35c | 130$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +124.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…a3a4backed No | 73c | 129.73$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No | 73c | 127.21$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…5fc7backed Yes | 48c | 125.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.92 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 9c | 125.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,730 | 18%311 W · 1,419 L | +73.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x943a…8234backed No | 12c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 28c | 119.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 29c | 119.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 185 | 33%61 W · 124 L | -18.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 118.13$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6c…ee14backed Yes | 25c | 113.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.41 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 74c | 109.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 53c | 109.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 55c | 109.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d81…c006backed Yes | 49c | 101.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…604cbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cde…d91bbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked No | 73c | 99.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…6badbacked Yes | 31c | 97.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.