Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16debe72e3ee3f972c2a875e3d330242575066300ef23c8a12679412867b2b97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,637 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a79…c875backed No | 1c | 3,083$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 450.26$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.08 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 68c | 447.19$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.39 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 56c | 429.28$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.83 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 37c | 410.3$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.31 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 74c | 391$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.47 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 5c | 357.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 334.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 321.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 300.07$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 27c | 289.83$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.72 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 42c | 282.38$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…6ea2backed No | 68c | 255.95$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.69 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 57c | 224.05$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 6c | 220.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 202.97$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 28c | 200$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 188.23$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.19 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1603…2f43backed Yes | 79c | 182.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 11c | 171.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 29c | 166.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 165.74$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.47 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 53c | 158.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.21 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 25c | 154.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…b3ffbacked Yes | 34c | 151.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.59 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 57c | 151.56$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 146.59$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.46 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 146.25$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.83 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 146$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 60c | 144.28$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.07 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ee…aa3cbacked No | 17c | 138$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 69c | 136.22$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 30c | 132.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.22 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 45c | 131$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 22c | 128.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.21 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 121.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 32c | 116.64$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 59c | 113.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 16c | 108.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 37c | 107.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 106.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x709a…6170backed No | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 35c | 104.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 34c | 101.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 30c | 99.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 37c | 93.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.11 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 93.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 21c | 93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 42c | 91.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 25c | 86.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 66c | 80.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.07 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 41c | 79.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 78.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 64c | 77.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…9b20backed Yes | 33c | 76.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 21c | 71.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 22c | 70.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 68.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked Yes | 37c | 66.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 40c | 66.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 53c | 62.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3bdd…c16cbacked No | 69c | 57.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…e5d1backed Yes | 35c | 57.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 48c | 53.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 22c | 53.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e32…c821backed Yes | 28c | 52.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 20c | 51.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 51.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…481fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…9a12backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…b092backed Yes | 28c | 49.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 49.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…1a9ebacked Yes | 30c | 47.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 66c | 45.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 44c | 45.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd066…b607backed Yes | 31c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 66c | 44.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…f68abacked Yes | 40c | 42.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 42.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.65 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 32c | 41.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 39c | 41.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed No | 73c | 41.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8988…98f2backed No | 66c | 41.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 31c | 37.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…a2f8backed No | 71c | 37.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 118 | 72.9%86 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.