Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fda9f350653a2ad7cb568a5c51311d5c258367ee64bd31f4b3e64107f343c15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,460 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe190…e93dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 0c | 9,111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,190$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 0c | 6,890$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…aad9backed Yes | 0c | 4,300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,833$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 24c | 1,806$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.54 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,407$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 8c | 908.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 19c | 590.87$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 443.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…9b20backed Yes | 16c | 336.5$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 15c | 322.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 8c | 321.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 296.86$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.82 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 256.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 255.37$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.13 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 15c | 254.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 247.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 18c | 244.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 231.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 16c | 229.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 13c | 229.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 199.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 197.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 195.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 192.26$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…b3ffbacked Yes | 28c | 160.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 21c | 150.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 146$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 12c | 139.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 137.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 22c | 137.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 11c | 129.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 13c | 126.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 15c | 120.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 116.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 73c | 112.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 112.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 11c | 108.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 27c | 106.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…6ea2backed No | 75c | 104.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 20c | 103.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 27c | 100.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 12c | 99.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 77c | 97.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 32c | 95.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 13c | 88.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 29c | 86.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 19c | 84.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 13c | 83.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 69c | 81.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 25c | 80.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 16c | 78.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 21c | 76.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 26c | 74.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7c…b118backed Yes | 22c | 64.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 19c | 63.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 19c | 61.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes | 25c | 60.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 20c | 50.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 27c | 48.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 30c | 48.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0865…3d2cbacked Yes | 23c | 47.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 80c | 46.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 23c | 43.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…bf9fbacked No | 73c | 39.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed Yes | 31c | 33.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…eb79backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11bf…882ebacked No | 80c | 27.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 75c | 27.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 45c | 26.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb447…62ebbacked No | 79c | 17.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 79c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.