TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,460

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,460 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes0c11,200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes0c9,111$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2296313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes0c7,190$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6143021.9%94 W · 336 L+22.0wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed Yes0c6,890$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.069929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x030a…aad9backed Yes0c4,300$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes1c2,833$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.163023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+42%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes24c1,806$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.543732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes6c1,407$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.832,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes8c908.65$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7652322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes19c590.87$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1112,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes16c443.54$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.071,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x270b…9b20backed Yes16c336.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes15c322.17$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.830428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes8c321.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2559440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c296.86$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8286050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c256.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.962347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c255.37$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.133,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes15c254.97$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1556627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes27c250$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.044,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c247.17$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes18c244.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.964520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes14c231.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.457,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x094e…a709backed Yes16c229.98$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.79260.9%56 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-0.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes13c229.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes14c199.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes16c197.64$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.717,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes16c195.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No78c192.26$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes20c166.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3313215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x177a…b3ffbacked Yes28c160.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.51729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes21c150.01$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.565627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes16c146$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.651,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes12c139.28$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2393034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes8c137.58$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3432818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes22c137.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes11c129.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5841845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c126.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.012,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes15c120.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6426827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No80c120$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.1342857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes15c116.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No73c112.98$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.11,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes16c112.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes11c108.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c107$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.046,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes27c106.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.236737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc52…6ea2backed No75c104.7$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.332138.1%8 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes20c103.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6315334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes27c100.14$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8f4…c82cbacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247860.3%47 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6151…9848backed Yes12c99.87$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.981625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No77c97.15$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.671,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes32c95.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3018035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd84…109dbacked Yes13c88.48$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4622028.2%62 W · 158 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes29c86.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.756721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes19c84.11$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3659125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes13c83.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.221,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No69c81.32$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2113453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes25c80.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes16c78.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6924932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed Yes21c76.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.098433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes26c74.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2660519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f7c…b118backed Yes22c64.59$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2170%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes19c63.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8114834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes19c61.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed Yes25c60.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes20c50.51$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick18cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.536930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes27c48.69$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.971,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes30c48.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5840935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0865…3d2cbacked Yes23c47.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked No80c46.35$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.271,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes23c43.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c39…bf9fbacked No73c39.97$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+30.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed No70c35$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.544448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa42b…92e0backed Yes31c33.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.416349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No40c31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.492,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd7d…eb79backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.344553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11bf…882ebacked No80c27.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e22…1b31backed No75c27.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.837675%57 W · 19 L+11.8wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked No45c26.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.521848.6%106 W · 112 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No78c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.844,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a2c…0746backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.85872.4%42 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.589951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No79c19.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0876371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb447…62ebbacked No79c17.72$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.722065%13 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick54cpaid-8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No79c15.6$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.2820150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.