TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 21?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,552

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,552 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes1c1,073$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.642,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292b…9427backed Yes2c584.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.664438.6%17 W · 27 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes29c449.93$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed No70c399.95$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.993732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c352.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.032347.3%17 W · 217 L+0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes24c340.16$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.28220.7%17 W · 65 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes11c275.03$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5752322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes8c263$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7715923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes24c237.22$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8425536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes30c235.96$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0314338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No67c216.85$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.471,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5a5…5737backed Yes29c210.65$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.653920.5%8 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No69c203.57$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes23c202.17$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.61,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0370…48d3backed No65c200.22$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.227552%39 W · 36 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c195.39$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes38c186.35$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes30c186.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed Yes30c179.63$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.839929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes34c170$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.576,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes20c166.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3313215.9%21 W · 111 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c163.55$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes16c161.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.195228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes32c155.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.536033.3%20 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes33c152.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c151.4$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.643,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes25c150$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.54520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes28c146$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.721,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes26c139.85$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6126827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c23…56ecbacked No75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3330141.2%124 W · 177 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c132.95$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.427,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes28c122.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.777,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No69c120.33$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.711,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes38c116.77$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3165627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked No74c107.36$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.441,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes35c106.66$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.355453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes22c105.77$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6177428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.515334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7141…7900backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.278433.3%28 W · 56 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.452,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6151…9848backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281625%4 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes16c99.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.37521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3557…ae87backed No74c94.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.171540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes24c93.89$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.661,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes37c92.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9324932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes47c89.98$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7457659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes34c87.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes25c79.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.341845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes29c75.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4156…997ebacked Yes31c74.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.228636%31 W · 55 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes48c73.64$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3581029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c72.46$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.243,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No72c71.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.061,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No74c69.6$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7742469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No70c69.44$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.511,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7491…8a87backed Yes29c68.03$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.993324.2%8 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No53c65.52$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.861,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked No66c62.95$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5931262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Yes33c62.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.514131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c1b…a999backed No69c59.93$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.582152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x913a…a3e7backed Yes45c58.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.523767.6%25 W · 12 L+6.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+32.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes30c57.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2114834.5%51 W · 97 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e6…6282backed No72c51.34$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.34955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.221,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1354232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e11…481fbacked Yes27c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac2…9a12backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+47.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a95…b092backed Yes31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c47.73$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3efd…b982backed Yes40c46.84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.732725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed Yes46c43.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2036648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1869…9449backed Yes28c42.69$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.821729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes28c42.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x270b…9b20backed Yes51c39.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes29c37.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9422236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No67c36.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.168,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes28c36.12$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1136930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No59c35.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.2344553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79ee…aa3cbacked No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.854966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c28$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba8…8d3cbacked No64c27.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.829055.6%50 W · 40 L-7.7wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c14…35b8backed No79c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.254955.1%27 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked No63c24.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2418255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No70c21.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.558349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab3e…86c9backed No70c21.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.57785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick75cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed No69c20.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.3126253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No73c20.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.477676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7966…b251backed No51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8614359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ef…f2b4backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.773764.9%24 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a2c…0746backed No66c19.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.795872.4%42 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed No75c19.1$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7720150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed No72c17.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8612954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaccf…ffc6backed No70c16$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.