Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3355ac34f80da3799018b692486f2e29a5556e287435e870b8361ec404832dd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,552 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,073$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 2c | 584.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 29c | 449.93$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed No | 70c | 399.95$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 352.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 24c | 340.16$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 11c | 275.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked Yes | 8c | 263$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 24c | 237.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 30c | 235.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 216.85$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 29c | 210.65$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 69c | 203.57$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 23c | 202.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 65c | 200.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 195.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 38c | 186.35$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 30c | 186.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 30c | 179.63$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 170$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 163.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 16c | 161.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 32c | 155.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 33c | 152.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 151.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 28c | 146$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 26c | 139.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 132.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 122.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 120.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.71 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 38c | 116.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.31 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 74c | 107.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 35c | 106.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 105.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…9848backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 16c | 99.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…ae87backed No | 74c | 94.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 24c | 93.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 37c | 92.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 89.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 34c | 87.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 25c | 79.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 29c | 75.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 31c | 74.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 48c | 73.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 72.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 72c | 71.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 74c | 69.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 70c | 69.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 29c | 68.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 65.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 66c | 62.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 33c | 62.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 69c | 59.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 45c | 58.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 30c | 57.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…6282backed No | 72c | 51.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e11…481fbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac2…9a12backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a95…b092backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 47.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 40c | 46.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 46c | 43.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1869…9449backed Yes | 28c | 42.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 28c | 42.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…9b20backed Yes | 51c | 39.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 29c | 37.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 36.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 28c | 36.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 59c | 35.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ee…aa3cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 64c | 27.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 63c | 24.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…86c9backed No | 70c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 69c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 73c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 75c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 72c | 17.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…ffc6backed No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or higher on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.