Earnings · resolved market
Will General Mills (GIS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c34c74198cab30b9502db7d619941879ab26c0e4938d85355a1332b9c7e60ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 5c | 1,517$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 1,250$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.73 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…9726backed Yes | 80c | 964.87$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 19c | 812$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 52c | 530$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.4 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73a…e108backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 400$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…c9f4backed Yes | 74c | 385$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 10c | 370$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 58c | 337.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 12c | 333.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 45c | 332.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 25c | 309.93$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4135…a576backed No | 19c | 261.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 20c | 249.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 71c | 169.36$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 12c | 154.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 48c | 140$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…bc7cbacked Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117a…a264backed No | 18c | 114.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…fc4abacked No | 20c | 111.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…01cebacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa682…97b9backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 55c | 95.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 94.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.12 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed No | 29c | 94.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 24c | 86.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…69d8backed No | 37c | 54.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d0…371fbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…380fbacked Yes | 80c | 37.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed No | 28c | 36.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…e006backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…0fd7backed Yes | 74c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888e…4db7backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…9a13backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…237cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce2…5f90backed Yes | 72c | 22.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…5b50backed Yes | 54c | 21.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca82…f806backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 79c | 16.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f17…da7ebacked Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.