TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

China Taiwan · resolved market

Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$390,342
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$347,571

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,342 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7744…999ebacked No0c94,806$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No1c20,812$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.461241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick25cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No2c16,514$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.413444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e40…224ebacked No0c13,536$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No0c13,227$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.451471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+70.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked No1c10,248$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.36475%3 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.56per pick19cpaid+196.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed No0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+97.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7ac…bc7dbacked No8c6,664$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…44a4backed No9c5,947$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5f0…c0ebbacked No3c5,691$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0db5…f3aabacked No5c5,163$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6a…d67bbacked No3c5,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed No0c4,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No0c3,800$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.681233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36fe…3ab1backed No4c3,120$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7150%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked No3c2,996$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf603…82f1backed No1c2,820$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No4c2,818$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.13119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-87.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked No5c2,405$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0e…fb07backed No8c1,808$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed No4c1,800$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb96a…000bbacked No1c1,628$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No6c1,569$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.131275%9 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No5c1,556$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.871580%12 W · 3 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+47.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2f64…9138backed No2c1,335$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed No4c1,232$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.06137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No10c1,201$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1231353.8%7 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.32per pick22cpaid+108.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7d0a…8c6cbacked No9c1,200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No3c1,021$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No7c1,000$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+67.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked No5c959.15$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-53.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x611f…1f84backed Yes72c937$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa163…de8dbacked No3c882.18$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.321163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa718…06c4backed No6c867.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7a9…5976backed No2c690.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed No28c631$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked No33c606.11$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.39650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No3c600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c569.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.431277.9%10 W · 117 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No4c550.65$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28c9…b1d8backed No7c371.88$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e6…9767backed No6c324.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69a0…3eafbacked No4c317.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf888…1c04backed No28c306$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No8c258.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.552524%6 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.16per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf71e…e07dbacked No11c246.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dd8…5972backed No15c246.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked No7c145.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No12c140$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.745211.5%6 W · 46 L-11.8wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-71.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xfa6f…9e85backed No34c103$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb6…8ea9backed No34c88.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbff…e8e7backed No29c44.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450c…29eabacked Yes78c37.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.15540%2 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick68cpaid-47.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8240…9f89backed Yes80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc311…03f6backed Yes78c25.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe977…700fbacked Yes70c21.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.37250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Yes78c17.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.951392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick67cpaid+40.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.