China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Noetix Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x495c0df434cde394f4397dfff9986e0320b2c695bb1e9eff92126f4ef8c88b06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 3c | 4,041$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed No | 6c | 2,823$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb96a…000bbacked No | 1c | 1,300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…de8dbacked No | 2c | 998.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed No | 9c | 924.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 891.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 783$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 3c | 732.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…ef06backed No | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…3eafbacked No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88c…1ce8backed No | 4c | 387.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…0743backed No | 4c | 307.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da7…d887backed No | 19c | 262.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7035…c8eabacked No | 6c | 201.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed No | 10c | 165$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…7ca3backed Yes | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Noetix Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?this page
- Will Agibot have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?No won
- Will Booster Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?No won
- Will GALBOT have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?Yes won
- Will MagicLab have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?Yes won
- Will Unitree Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?Yes won
- Will Zhipu Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.