Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd242232b82ff978312a7ac86ac347379bf1f8fc37745094e3924382e6fe82412
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed No | 54c | 404.93$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.47 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 375.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 46c | 373.16$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed Yes | 53c | 277.72$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.53 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 14c | 214.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 79c | 160$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 143.92$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 128.34$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…0083backed No | 47c | 127.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 42c | 109.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.23 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 107.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 102.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.86 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 33c | 100.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 35c | 87.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c4…c928backed Yes | 30c | 76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +69%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1bb2backed Yes | 68c | 74.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 33c | 70.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed Yes | 43c | 59.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 58.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 41c | 51.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 53c | 47.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 52c | 40.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd917…3774backed Yes | 33c | 39.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56b…06b7backed No | 66c | 38.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked No | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 34c | 32.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 35c | 29.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.