Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa969b71f7d8b6f13590959476f7695d25edcc8dff2fa284ffe9ed94b4a6ecb72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,108 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 1c | 13,270$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2e…2581backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 1c | 2,763$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 1c | 1,897$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 3c | 1,657$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…4936backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…4e39backed Yes | 2c | 1,267$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 1c | 1,226$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,026$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.88 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked Yes | 8c | 795.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 63c | 771.92$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.37 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 29c | 636.79$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.91 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398f…5ababacked Yes | 2c | 517.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed No | 63c | 505.49$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.61 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…ded6backed Yes | 28c | 373$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.03 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 8c | 326.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022f…e73abacked No | 67c | 305.17$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 289.24$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 17c | 216.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 166.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb7…4482backed No | 74c | 146.24$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked Yes | 40c | 122.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 120.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 15c | 119.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed Yes | 49c | 117.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…f88ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +237.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 62c | 86.9$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…cca8backed Yes | 13c | 84.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 17c | 80.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…e3e5backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 58cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 73c | 68.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd917…3774backed Yes | 55c | 47.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 57c | 45.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 40c | 38.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…f433backed No | 65c | 38.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 38.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…c0b1backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b6…0203backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 72c | 19.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 65c | 15.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C or higher on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.