Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x934cf0bd4732b217d3a4f0abb86c43f7ca18c6bcb85adbad7ad34168caed9c88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,435 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3299…8728backed Yes | 0c | 4,015$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…5a85backed No | 63c | 2,000$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…8e64backed No | 75c | 1,865$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5549…ad60backed Yes | 18c | 1,485$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 1,455$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c9…7ee8backed Yes | 1c | 1,442$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,040$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 979.61$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.26 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 50c | 651.16$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.62 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 612.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 72c | 571.27$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.19 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…c8a9backed No | 55c | 481.28$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 53c | 451.69$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.72 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 69c | 447.4$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.1 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 62c | 337.33$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.6 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 31c | 320$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.51 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 43c | 303.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 300.62$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 294.54$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 35c | 289.71$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 49c | 258.7$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.4 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 74c | 250$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x943b…fe84backed Yes | 52c | 235.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 225.97$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e0…4b62backed No | 58c | 224.44$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 44c | 209.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 15c | 208.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked Yes | 73c | 207.65$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…1528backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…9db8backed No | 32c | 193.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 52c | 193.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 30c | 186.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…761cbacked Yes | 56c | 179.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…e78cbacked Yes | 37c | 174.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 44c | 174.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 30c | 168.53$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 162$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 62c | 160.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked Yes | 78c | 159.39$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…852cbacked Yes | 64c | 156.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.3 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…6789backed No | 44c | 144.88$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 44c | 141.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe364…2d04backed No | 44c | 138.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 36c | 138.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 132.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 47c | 126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 117.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 53c | 112.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 42c | 112.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 28c | 106.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 49c | 103.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…e842backed Yes | 49c | 102.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c3…6077backed No | 47c | 101.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +197.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 29c | 100.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 48c | 100.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…8894backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 56c | 99.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 42c | 99.89$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…ebe5backed Yes | 77c | 99.56$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 45c | 98.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…19f4backed Yes | 52c | 95.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 12c | 92.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed No | 23c | 91$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 48c | 90.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 26c | 90.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.61 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 90.04$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…de4cbacked No | 74c | 87.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 31c | 86.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 86.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…0f8fbacked Yes | 59c | 85.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 49c | 81.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 81.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 54c | 79.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…d14dbacked No | 75c | 79.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed No | 65c | 79.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 45c | 77.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…8b4ebacked No | 30c | 77.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…ce69backed Yes | 52c | 73.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 74c | 72.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 63c | 71.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 56c | 71.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…5fc7backed Yes | 34c | 70.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.