Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe88b2c5e6e289103bf2c1816d32f8e65cf99227194068b1e31434aec717de34f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,151 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x686c…c25fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,560$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…d0cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 12c | 719.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 11c | 671.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 24c | 633.84$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.14 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…c153backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 540$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 9c | 481.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 27c | 452.12$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 26c | 423.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.88 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 418.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 77c | 308.98$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 288.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 251.55$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 19c | 248.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 241.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed No | 79c | 233.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 19c | 233.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 75c | 226.13$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 225.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 211$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 25c | 205.52$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 204.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 6c | 191.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 191.42$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 15c | 180$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 174.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b47…2906backed No | 78c | 170$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…7093backed Yes | 31c | 160.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 10c | 156.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 25c | 153.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 24c | 151.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac48…19f4backed Yes | 27c | 149.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 142.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 12c | 140.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 140.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…b948backed Yes | 14c | 138.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb2…21cbbacked No | 77c | 130.42$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…42acbacked No | 69c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked Yes | 16c | 99.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…f742backed Yes | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 23c | 94.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 94.88$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 17c | 86.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd3…3387backed Yes | 14c | 86.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…711bbacked No | 71c | 84.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 73c | 81.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9f…0bcabacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…b86fbacked Yes | 25c | 79.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…761cbacked Yes | 24c | 76.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db9…8b0fbacked Yes | 15c | 74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x657e…9fa5backed Yes | 32c | 63.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…4752backed Yes | 31c | 49.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 31c | 47.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x554a…96e3backed No | 76c | 39.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 29c | 39.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 28c | 38.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5251…abc8backed No | 76c | 35.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe830…efd0backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 31c | 33.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8648backed No | 73c | 32.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…3698backed No | 76c | 31.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc8…cbdbbacked No | 76c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…1019backed No | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 74c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.