Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad1437fcf0be59722ae9c9b8865de083090719d7fd25c98a10c8d603cd6d65c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,638 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 3c | 2,926$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce30…3760backed No | 1c | 2,104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 1,443$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 799.42$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.44 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed Yes | 24c | 695.62$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.21 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 20c | 667.48$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 24c | 654.25$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.43 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 44c | 638.81$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 3c | 521$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 33c | 471.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.1 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 468.38$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.24 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 19c | 464.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.36 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 455.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 4c | 449.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…0751backed No | 68c | 420$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 75c | 399.95$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.14 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2969…661fbacked Yes | 25c | 387.76$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +86%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…22c0backed Yes | 70c | 376.73$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.47 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +6.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 346.02$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 335.66$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.23 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 6c | 324.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 12c | 311.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 18c | 270.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.69 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 71c | 260.16$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 66c | 258.17$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f1…04e9backed Yes | 17c | 257.24$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +668.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 256.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.7 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked No | 71c | 250.64$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.83 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 250$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 73c | 226.16$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.69 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33e…c742backed Yes | 28c | 224.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 5c | 220.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 218.79$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 216.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…761cbacked Yes | 20c | 210$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.3 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 6c | 208$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.52 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 15c | 205.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.88 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 62c | 204.76$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 13c | 204.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.21 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 200.76$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 13c | 199.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.98 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 26c | 199.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 19c | 188.01$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 8c | 174.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 60c | 162.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 28c | 160.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…de1abacked Yes | 42c | 160.08$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…7aa6backed Yes | 61c | 141.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 140.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.31 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 19c | 139.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.57 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…c8a9backed Yes | 28c | 137.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9846…78afbacked No | 74c | 135.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e8…38b0backed No | 56c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 19c | 130$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 22c | 129$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.05 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed No | 66c | 125.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.77 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…9544backed Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.6 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c77abacked Yes | 30c | 115.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 35c | 112.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…8772backed Yes | 25c | 109.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 27c | 109.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 17c | 106.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d7…3499backed No | 19c | 102.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 35c | 100.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 24c | 100.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.48 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8713…bfd5backed Yes | 24c | 100.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.09 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3409…6839backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.18 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…96e1backed Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 52c | 99.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c9…7ee8backed Yes | 40c | 98.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…d2b5backed Yes | 26c | 97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 32c | 92.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…c23cbacked No | 79c | 89.35$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 21c | 85.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…aa48backed No | 70c | 85.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…9782backed No | 73c | 80.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 80.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 33c | 80.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfc…26aebacked No | 36c | 78.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…8f0ebacked Yes | 18c | 78.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…c5e1backed Yes | 26c | 77.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e9…4f2cbacked Yes | 21c | 76.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 75.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 73.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 25c | 72.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa368…a1f6backed Yes | 20c | 68.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.