AI · resolved market
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe306f4b3d5437f6307be05b3aff0be42cad14cd5a55b3f2e5212f2223c822442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,866 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 9c | 4,433$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.15 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed No | 23c | 1,838$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.94 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…bb0fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,314$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…69d5backed Yes | 48c | 1,250$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.16 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 3c | 1,234$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 7c | 991.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.76 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 961.96$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.4 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed No | 14c | 954.02$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99dc…7d0abacked Yes | 28c | 881.33$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed No | 50c | 738.82$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…e7a5backed Yes | 73c | 716.75$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 31c | 695.5$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 39c | 656.17$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.05 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…6430backed Yes | 53c | 656.11$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed Yes | 77c | 645.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.18 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 12c | 600$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.6 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…291bbacked Yes | 43c | 539.52$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723d…90c4backed Yes | 11c | 529.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 14c | 522.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.47 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed No | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 59c | 452.24$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.68 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…d8d8backed Yes | 12c | 442.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +754.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes | 73c | 441.74$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c41…d446backed No | 15c | 394.06$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…e82ebacked Yes | 52c | 365.91$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b2…df23backed Yes | 77c | 348.89$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e2…4b81backed Yes | 29c | 343.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…f8a0backed Yes | 60c | 332.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 54c | 327.34$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.67 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed Yes | 40c | 321.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 317.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 31c | 294.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9722…8758backed Yes | 32c | 272.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +214.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 18c | 269.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 20c | 268.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Yes | 43c | 256$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ad…5936backed Yes | 70c | 252.26$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…c9fabacked Yes | 12c | 241.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 71c | 229.45$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.16 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Yes | 77c | 225.96$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…8d70backed Yes | 43c | 219.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 64c | 200.5$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed Yes | 47c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed Yes | 42c | 194.89$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 26c | 194$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 78c | 193.16$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 33c | 192.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…e8b2backed Yes | 42c | 190.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 8c | 175.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 29c | 170.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…c206backed Yes | 43c | 140.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…f557backed Yes | 77c | 129.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf170…9da7backed Yes | 40c | 123.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 70c | 112.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4665…7fc7backed No | 10c | 106$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…94c0backed Yes | 29c | 104.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf304…f665backed No | 11c | 101$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a2…eb8abacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3acb…20d3backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1d…6368backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…2febbacked Yes | 40c | 99.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 49c | 98.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded6…81ebbacked No | 57c | 95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 64c | 94.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 70c | 93.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 42c | 92.88$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 65c | 92.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.12 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…181dbacked No | 12c | 92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6319…770abacked No | 13c | 91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dd14backed No | 12c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973b…0a46backed Yes | 52c | 88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d0…db8dbacked Yes | 41c | 85.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 32c | 83.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…94a3backed Yes | 39c | 75.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +159.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6289…7175backed Yes | 54c | 74.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked No | 66c | 73.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeafd…3d87backed Yes | 70c | 71.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf841…b2ebbacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +119.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed Yes | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5c08backed Yes | 37c | 69.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ce…1da9backed Yes | 63c | 67.31$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 56c | 65.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 48c | 65.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7819…eccebacked Yes | 33c | 61.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 25c | 59.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57b…29e6backed Yes | 74c | 53.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401c…ee2dbacked Yes | 37c | 53.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 31c | 53.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…8d04backed Yes | 54c | 51.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d00…4c8fbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf562…27f9backed Yes | 40c | 49.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…4d16backed Yes | 77c | 49.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…d10cbacked Yes | 32c | 49.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b8…40edbacked Yes | 77c | 46.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8d…a39bbacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85bf…c72bbacked Yes | 47c | 42.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5f…6430backed Yes | 37c | 40.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.