AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ade060b248cb59c8af3d4265ff94a3beb51f7afe3cbad1d6668bf2f2144834a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,315 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 9c | 3,026$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750.17 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 47c | 2,814$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.12 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 39c | 2,002$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.81 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 15c | 1,721$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,463.68 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 12c | 1,252$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.67 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed No | 5c | 1,165$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.38 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 45c | 948.31$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.59 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…f8a0backed Yes | 74c | 945.11$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 2c | 723.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 60c | 719.65$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.56 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…e7a5backed Yes | 72c | 697.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498b…52f6backed Yes | 79c | 672.85$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…78a6backed Yes | 46c | 550.8$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 7c | 520$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.01 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 73c | 482.18$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…f7ebbacked Yes | 4c | 472.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 28c | 459.7$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.98 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes | 43c | 413.5$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…23f6backed Yes | 75c | 353.1$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 48c | 350.77$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.2 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaa…6688backed Yes | 66c | 302.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 33c | 300.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 33c | 279.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x992e…24edbacked Yes | 78c | 256.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…2605backed Yes | 60c | 238.49$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 30c | 219.4$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 36c | 219.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.11 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…78dfbacked Yes | 57c | 210.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 13c | 209.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc241…1487backed No | 30c | 201.3$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.61 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 71c | 200.68$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 5c | 199.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 30c | 188.26$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ed…9374backed Yes | 73c | 164.88$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee36…bebebacked Yes | 32c | 154.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 73c | 150.35$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 39c | 150$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…4cccbacked No | 39c | 144.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e6…99e3backed Yes | 70c | 143.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaa…43e2backed Yes | 70c | 142.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c3…a6bebacked Yes | 74c | 135.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.3wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5a86backed Yes | 32c | 132.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 60c | 132.22$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 130.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 127.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 52c | 125.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x359c…8cccbacked Yes | 66c | 111.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb5…9c11backed Yes | 13c | 109$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463e…4162backed Yes | 12c | 107$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce2…a155backed Yes | 13c | 106$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…369ebacked Yes | 12c | 106$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…af4fbacked Yes | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf170…9da7backed No | 41c | 103.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7230…a3d2backed Yes | 47c | 100.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8d…6724backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd4…bdc4backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…ee66backed Yes | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…1ecfbacked Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 63c | 87.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb6…90f3backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fd…c74abacked Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ab…e293backed Yes | 62c | 80.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 70.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…8a33backed Yes | 33c | 70.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3dd…cfc9backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed No | 33c | 67.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +478.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 45c | 64.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d61…d8f4backed Yes | 53c | 62.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 20c | 62.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x112d…c01dbacked Yes | 65c | 61.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 25c | 60.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…8d04backed Yes | 61c | 60.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 57.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…9fe2backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 34c | 43.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -7.8wins | -0.23per pick | 55cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed1c…a3d1backed Yes | 61c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…f731backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…1922backed Yes | 63c | 39.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 61c | 39.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 61c | 36.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…4cbfbacked Yes | 63c | 35.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 60cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed No | 73c | 34.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0de2…2adabacked Yes | 58c | 33.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f7…7eadbacked Yes | 46c | 31.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7e…4d85backed Yes | 71c | 31.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a4…ffebbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb16…4b4fbacked Yes | 59c | 27.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…2722backed Yes | 49c | 26.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…303dbacked Yes | 70c | 26.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…2a91backed Yes | 65c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55a…edfcbacked Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e5…4414backed Yes | 54c | 22.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x642d…3de0backed Yes | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ee…26babacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?this page
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.