Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1341b7fce8dc3b0ae074db712a60238c4afed8de34c84a2360f330f83810e0df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,778
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,778 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 60c | 3,383$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.95 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 36c | 2,794$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,796.21 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 79c | 2,366$1,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,867.75 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 1,117$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.25 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed No | 22c | 798.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked Yes | 22c | 759.54$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.99 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 7c | 600$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 16c | 544.24$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.46 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 55c | 520.66$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.64 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 21c | 508.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.64 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 16c | 453.69$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 23c | 443.06$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.15 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 24c | 426.01$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 17c | 399.97$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.58 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 14c | 360.95$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 19c | 358.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.49 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…fc3fbacked Yes | 64c | 325.39$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 68c | 318.69$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.29 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 63c | 269.19$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked No | 13c | 259.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 24c | 232.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.25 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 230.68$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 226.74$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059a…782cbacked Yes | 10c | 218.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc6…02ddbacked No | 27c | 207.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 62c | 202.84$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.52 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…b395backed No | 78c | 196.29$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.01 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd1…9c20backed Yes | 53c | 188.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -43%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 188.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 80c | 155$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.35 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed Yes | 75c | 137.91$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 29c | 118.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 61c | 118$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 48c | 100.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 33c | 100.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36fe…3ab1backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 22c | 96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 92.29$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 83.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.12 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 59c | 79.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf435…7e64backed Yes | 72c | 75.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 61.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 59c | 59.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 55c | 58.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x620b…fca3backed Yes | 56c | 52.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…2386backed No | 39c | 45.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed No | 55c | 45.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…1d5abacked Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 67c | 43.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed Yes | 56c | 38.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 69c | 38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d9…1b0cbacked Yes | 50c | 34.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…1336backed No | 50c | 34.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…29ebbacked Yes | 50c | 34.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d5…9a21backed Yes | 79c | 31.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…97b0backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 74c | 29.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…d8b2backed Yes | 44c | 29.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 62c | 27.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb2…35d0backed Yes | 63c | 24.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…b047backed No | 60c | 24.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbb…9e28backed No | 60c | 23.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa739…e31abacked Yes | 79c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a8…ecc4backed Yes | 64c | 21.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…b63fbacked No | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 60c | 19.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…035abacked Yes | 71c | 16.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed Yes | 77c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 42m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.