Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeb43e96e260d8b11f4ec724610bc987533b3a7af2694296d71b77333ab785f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 9,061$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,005$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 25c | 890.58$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.11 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes | 17c | 561$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…7a33backed Yes | 17c | 512$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 17c | 501$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.17 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff8…3c8bbacked No | 70c | 216.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…287dbacked No | 75c | 199.97$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 121.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23d…cc55backed Yes | 50c | 38.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…255fbacked No | 50c | 34.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f26…d14bbacked Yes | 50c | 34.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…8e1ebacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 42m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.