Movies · resolved market
Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7da4e9c69a81ca294942dfa49e0fffd728759a751e9b4943cf03941e2925cdf4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 1c | 11,025$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…6feebacked Yes | 13c | 1,900$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,589$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,567$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.94 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9583…bd4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,437$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed Yes | 16c | 1,008$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 16c | 945$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 14c | 856.37$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…35cebacked No | 55c | 717$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.26 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 16c | 604.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 54c | 400$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.76 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 304.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 56c | 267.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.78 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 67c | 203.19$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 57c | 163.13$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 54c | 80.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 40.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…4763backed Yes | 50c | 33.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a902backed No | 50c | 33.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0263…dd37backed Yes | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…f807backed No | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfe…1afcbacked No | 69c | 29.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 68c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda9b…b2a9backed No | 71c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…8fb0backed No | 76c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 46m and 50m?this page
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 42m and 46m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 54m?No won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 54m?Yes won
- Will "Project Hail Mary" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 42m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.