NHL · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f8f7f60afb9ecfb1849e48d3b3401b450011eab33ed60acb9a6eb57b887d063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Kings, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,324 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Kings | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.99 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Islanders | 68c | 1,639$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.52 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Islanders | 57c | 789.65$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Kings | 31c | 600.72$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.5 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…9394backed Islanders | 60c | 332.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kings | 41c | 327$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Islanders | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Islanders | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Kings | 44c | 283.11$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kings | 47c | 263.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Islanders | 49c | 197.41$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 30c | 171.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Islanders | 70c | 171.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kings | 50c | 156.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.58 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Islanders | 68c | 118.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Islanders | 69c | 100.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Kings | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Islanders | 70c | 97.52$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Islanders | 70c | 72.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Islanders | 60c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Islanders | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Kings | 30c | 40.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Kings | 72c | 38.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Islanders | 69c | 30.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Islanders | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Kings | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Islanders | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)this page
- Islanders vs. KingsKings won
- Islanders vs. Kings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Islanders vs. Kings: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.