Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1830dc5cc1ab990c74f2581d28dd662cc3639c5c2825ca7ce0bb14af76a36cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,023
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88eb…9394backed No | 64c | 920.74$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 627.68$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.97 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 58c | 609.32$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.4 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 34c | 431.61$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.18 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 63c | 316.83$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.61 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 49c | 286.81$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 18c | 251.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 60c | 242.36$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.29 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 39c | 238.08$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 58c | 235.86$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 44c | 182.12$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…6614backed Yes | 67c | 176.44$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 49c | 165.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 50c | 130.82$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.69 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 79c | 123.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 46c | 117.15$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 53c | 115$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 40c | 113.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 50c | 98.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 51c | 95.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked No | 46c | 91.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…606bbacked Yes | 68c | 83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed Yes | 54c | 77.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166b…1520backed Yes | 52c | 74.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 74.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…bb6bbacked No | 50c | 69.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 38c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3619…6dd3backed No | 50c | 60.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked No | 51c | 58.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed Yes | 55c | 56.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed No | 42c | 54.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 51c | 54.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed Yes | 57c | 51.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…a314backed No | 49c | 51.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…cd5dbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 48.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb9de…3e2cbacked No | 50c | 46.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…da0dbacked No | 44c | 45.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.87 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8427…658ebacked Yes | 62c | 45.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…10cbbacked No | 66c | 43.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…33d7backed Yes | 59c | 43.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…8999backed Yes | 64c | 42.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 49c | 40.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…cfe1backed Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 37c | 39.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed Yes | 66c | 39.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 49c | 39.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 39c | 39.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 37c | 38.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d44…831bbacked Yes | 41c | 38.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 56c | 38.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…b68dbacked No | 64c | 36.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 70c | 36.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed Yes | 41c | 36.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…fbccbacked No | 50c | 36.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 64c | 34.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 41c | 33.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 45c | 33.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 57c | 31.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb9…9dbabacked Yes | 40c | 30.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1078…7627backed Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…977fbacked Yes | 50c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e37…0939backed No | 57c | 29.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…b136backed Yes | 52c | 29.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…5a48backed Yes | 69c | 28.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…8fb0backed Yes | 67c | 28.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 66c | 26.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…618dbacked Yes | 57c | 26.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…2940backed No | 48c | 25.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…072fbacked No | 49c | 24.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d53…9a3ebacked No | 53c | 22.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…14debacked Yes | 54c | 22.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed Yes | 48c | 21.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed Yes | 74c | 21.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…47d0backed No | 50c | 21.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf10…a760backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…0c6fbacked No | 63c | 18.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.