Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdea2a9bb72f4c08c70881af8b62ebafeb5ba83a8f25c9502658e1060c38e7087
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 50c | 473.02$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.45 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 61c | 381.44$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 30c | 264.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.77 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 64c | 225.02$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.92 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 36c | 195.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf649…5bb6backed Yes | 72c | 167.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 153.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 68c | 129.95$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf0…10cbbacked Yes | 78c | 114.25$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 103.95$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 34c | 99.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…3ce8backed Yes | 44c | 97.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 41c | 94.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 71c | 93.1$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 78c | 89.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.83 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 35c | 89.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 35c | 85.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.92 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 32c | 84.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.62 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 24c | 76.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a7a3backed Yes | 26c | 71.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 72c | 69.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 76c | 62.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 36c | 61.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.51 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 29c | 61.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 51c | 56.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 47c | 54.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 65c | 52.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 30c | 49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 38c | 48.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 33c | 45.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 30c | 43.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 69c | 43.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 48c | 42.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…9745backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad1…0b93backed No | 69c | 37.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 37.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03a…e64ebacked No | 66c | 37.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 29c | 36.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 73c | 36.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2299…583ebacked No | 67c | 30.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…20a2backed No | 78c | 29.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348a…9c6bbacked Yes | 48c | 28.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 43c | 28.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 27.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 58c | 26.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes | 79c | 25.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 65c | 25.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03fe…3ea9backed Yes | 44c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 21.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 56c | 18.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 74c | 18.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…5bd5backed No | 68c | 16.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 71c | 16.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed No | 78c | 14.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.