Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on February 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc0a9f58386aff26d455e3801200fb6ed40e63940a7986ac9f8d1a782e13ec53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88eb…9394backed No | 10c | 1,256$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 2c | 1,084$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 13c | 575.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…9c82backed No | 8c | 525.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 66c | 501.13$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.71 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa685…c2b3backed No | 40c | 352.63$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.01 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 60c | 311.91$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 41c | 298.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 8c | 289.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 28c | 214.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 80c | 204$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.98 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6131…df71backed No | 38c | 197.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 66c | 166.9$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 31c | 139.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 60c | 124.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 68c | 122.64$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes | 68c | 119.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 52c | 119.72$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 35c | 106.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 10c | 105.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d27…8999backed No | 33c | 99.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked No | 26c | 95.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 33c | 93.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed No | 46c | 85.55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 72c | 84.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 17c | 77.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…d055backed Yes | 75c | 68.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…487cbacked Yes | 62c | 65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed No | 31c | 63.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 21c | 62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 29c | 56.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 57c | 52.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 28c | 50.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ac…6595backed No | 38c | 49.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 66c | 47.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 78c | 45.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 43c | 43.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…648fbacked Yes | 72c | 40.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…9811backed Yes | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 40c | 34.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed Yes | 75c | 33.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 78c | 33.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…606bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…1f3bbacked Yes | 76c | 29.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…bb3abacked Yes | 52c | 28.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed Yes | 71c | 25.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2033…7a6cbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…361bbacked Yes | 70c | 23.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 67c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…3d4ebacked Yes | 79c | 22.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…c9f2backed Yes | 78c | 21.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c9…b92fbacked Yes | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…8fb0backed Yes | 68c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 70c | 18.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…da0dbacked Yes | 62c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 65°F or below on February 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 80°F or higher on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on February 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on February 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.