TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pacersof Magic, Pacers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$493,248

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $493,248 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pacers55c241,005$132,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108,243.3587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Magic45c125,566$56,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,504.729245.5%133 W · 159 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Pacers51c65,924$33,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,486.0332653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Magic45c53,181$23,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,931.528643%123 W · 163 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Magic43c46,512$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,999.9617251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Pacers52c33,871$17,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,208.611,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacae…6798backed Pacers57c31,217$17,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,423.1611241.1%46 W · 66 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Magic45c29,513$13,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,280.8516039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…9742backed Magic48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,599.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic48c17,139$8,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,218.314,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2a4…cf8abacked Magic47c12,733$5,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,988.0124744.1%109 W · 138 L-10.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Magic46c12,116$5,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,555.584,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Magic45c11,778$5,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,273.17240.3%29 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Pacers53c10,781$5,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,067.329053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee17…b46ebacked Pacers51c10,459$5,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,125.024257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Pacers51c10,190$5,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,993.0258449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Magic49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Magic49c7,755$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80049246.3%228 W · 264 L-15.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic47c6,331$2,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,991.544,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Pacers57c6,053$3,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,596.741,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Magic49c5,510$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70018349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ac…f668backed Magic49c5,239$2,567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,566.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Magic49c4,898$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Magic49c4,898$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40021943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic27c4,890$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.18,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc90…f310backed Magic50c4,422$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,211250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Magic45c4,103$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.4437842.9%162 W · 216 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Magic49c3,906$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,91429347.4%139 W · 154 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pacers57c3,734$2,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,605.681,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac95…9edbbacked Pacers48c3,362$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Pacers57c3,070$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.11,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc909…4143backed Magic51c2,992$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.9220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9344…3507backed Pacers49c2,992$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,525.92366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9265…caa8backed Pacers49c2,975$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic47c2,965$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.013,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5ff6…9591backed Magic51c2,960$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92c5…aac0backed Pacers49c2,933$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.833100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Magic49c2,933$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,43770246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…76d1backed Magic51c2,892$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x087b…4117backed Magic51c2,681$1,367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56ed…6213backed Magic51c2,652$1,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+35%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94da…340cbacked Pacers49c2,652$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,352.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a96…908cbacked Magic51c2,648$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,350.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-29.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae84…83e1backed Pacers49c2,640$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,346.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa03e…3a53backed Pacers49c2,633$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.83333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa875…a424backed Magic52c2,532$1,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e44…8aa3backed Magic52c2,414$1,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Magic44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015952.8%84 W · 75 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Pacers58c2,256$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.438253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…8336backed Magic52c2,233$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x36f2…dab4backed Magic49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0007951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic47c2,016$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.525,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb710…b4c2backed Pacers48c1,966$944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pacers54c1,962$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.871,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb177…1914backed Magic49c1,951$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95624847.6%118 W · 130 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x126e…2f5ebacked Pacers48c1,887$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd623…06a6backed Magic52c1,818$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.36333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b2…9c91backed Pacers48c1,774$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$922.48366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Pacers58c1,724$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.148756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Pacers54c1,531$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705.242,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Magic49c1,500$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7321,47551.3%756 W · 719 L+35.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Magic44c1,498$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.123831.6%12 W · 26 L-6.6wins-0.17per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Magic49c1,476$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72313750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Magic49c1,439$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70517349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…e7dbbacked Magic50c1,366$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682.9128649.7%142 W · 144 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pacers57c1,325$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.752,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Pacers57c1,316$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.7967252.7%354 W · 318 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Magic47c1,266$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.8520352.2%106 W · 97 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Magic50c1,100$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55087453.3%466 W · 408 L+19.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Magic48c1,034$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50059140.8%241 W · 350 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Pacers51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Magic49c999.99$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Pacers52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5450954.8%279 W · 230 L+14.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbce5…02f1backed Pacers53c949.99$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.518651.6%96 W · 90 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb2c…bb26backed Magic46c935$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.12138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe57f…4d74backed Magic49c918.37$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502871.4%20 W · 8 L+5.9wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic48c850.83$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.672,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x026c…8d76backed Magic49c831$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.196946.4%32 W · 37 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Magic50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40087049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Pacers51c600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2943,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1966…da9ebacked Magic42c595.24$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25035849.7%178 W · 180 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Magic49c579.12$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.153,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e5…697abacked Magic47c540$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.220650%103 W · 103 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Magic46c528.5$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.1140146.9%188 W · 213 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x917e…eed9backed Magic48c519.79$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.921049.5%104 W · 106 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Magic50c512.99$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.838043.8%35 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Pacers66c502.21$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.441,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Pacers53c477.49$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.9816139.8%64 W · 97 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x034b…b22bbacked Pacers51c476.47$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.473070%21 W · 9 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9385…2484backed Magic49c456.67$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.779352.7%49 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Magic42c450$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.55,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Magic47c429.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Magic43c425$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.7515656.4%88 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb89b…a39dbacked Magic43c424$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.3211453.5%61 W · 53 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Magic36c412.8$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3351438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Magic49c412$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.881,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Pacers52c399.99$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19280653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Pacers55c308.59$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.211,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Magic47c304.32$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.12,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Magic29c299.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1666645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.