TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,386 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7200…9299backed Yes35c521.24$182 inLost-$181.7136954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa959…6a33backed Yes43c458.13$199 inLost-$1991931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No68c401.99$274 inWon+$128.0239265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No55c264.13$145 inWon+$118.861,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x782c…2445backed Yes30c164.82$50 inLost-$508342.2%35 W · 48 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…798abacked No60c150$90 inWon+$605470.4%38 W · 16 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1ee…0f22backed Yes31c134.16$42 inLost-$41.5438736.4%141 W · 246 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed No69c133.7$92 inWon+$41.5415362.1%95 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed No67c100$67 inWon+$3395260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No58c60$35 inWon+$25.24,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No69c28$19 inWon+$8.8232866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked No71c14.99$11 inWon+$4.3588057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.