TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Pacers, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,137 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Pacers46c2,059$952 inLost-$952.085,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Magic52c1,402$727 inWon+$674.251,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed Magic50c495.92$250 inWon+$245.924271.4%30 W · 12 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbcc…5ae5backed Magic61c288.52$176 inWon+$112.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0b…44fdbacked Magic52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.316435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce8…63febacked Magic32c156.25$50 inWon+$106.2512543.2%54 W · 71 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Magic67c149.97$100 inWon+$49.979546.3%44 W · 51 L-11.2wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-24.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Magic49c136.76$67 inWon+$69.7557444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Magic49c73.01$35 inWon+$37.61,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9534…4182backed Pacers35c63.07$22 inLost-$22.13148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Pacers51c54.32$28 inLost-$27.9726353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Pacers48c46.92$22 inLost-$22.321,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…f55cbacked Pacers64c38.9$25 inLost-$24.92334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Magic64c27.75$18 inWon+$10.1390357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Pacers52c20$10 inLost-$10.4114471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.