NBA · resolved market
Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e2b4f72dc5b46381cc6dcaf73448de713401c60ff96f32708a80128fcdb0cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,307 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 53c | 22,270$11,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,470.24 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…2653backed Under | 47c | 7,447$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 162 | 49.4%80 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 46c | 4,694$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,138.86 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Over | 50c | 4,475$2,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,237.5 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 47c | 4,255$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 485 | 46.4%225 W · 260 L | -14.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 47c | 3,617$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 389 | 46%179 W · 210 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 3,258$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.84 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 2,460$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 45c | 1,830$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.36 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.28 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Under | 47c | 1,240$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.8 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 54c | 923.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.82 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 55c | 912$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.4 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 475.28$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.87 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 408.87$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.99 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743a…ddcdbacked Under | 48c | 399.99$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.99 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…eed9backed Under | 44c | 375.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.14 | 210 | 49.5%104 W · 106 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 48c | 331$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 327.78$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.12 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 46c | 295.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.34 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 44c | 250$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 47c | 213$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 153$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.91 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 428 | 53%227 W · 201 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…7a20backed Over | 53c | 132.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 115.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 48c | 101.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461b…30ddbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 98.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Over | 53c | 94.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.62 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 46c | 90.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 47c | 87.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 44c | 72.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 70.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 56c | 64.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 58c | 51.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…682dbacked Under | 48c | 50.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…f55cbacked Under | 48c | 50.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 47c | 44.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 45c | 42.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f4…08b7backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 355 | 51.3%182 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 38.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 53c | 38.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…b8b2backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 118 | 45.8%54 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 251 | 38.6%97 W · 154 L | -11.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d3…7c23backed Under | 45c | 26.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…9aa2backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…4b61backed Over | 53c | 21.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…4d31backed Over | 54c | 18.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 231.5this page
- Aaron Nesmith: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Aaron Nesmith: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Aaron Nesmith: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Andrew Nembhard: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jalen Suggs: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Pacers vs. MagicPacers won
- Pacers vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Pacers vs. Magic: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 230.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 237.5Over won
- Pacers vs. Magic: O/U 242.5Over won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Pascal Siakam: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Magic (-12.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Magic (-13.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Magic (-7.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.